Wednesday, May 21, 2014

T.V Ratings – NCIS and the Numbers


[Title card for the TV series, NCIS] 


What Do All Those Numbers Mean?


On Monday (5/19/2014) I did a blog about the ratings and demo numbers: 

Ratings and TV Viewing Habits” (http://soapboxmarie.blogspot.com/2014/05/ratings-and-tv-viewing-habits.html). 

If you’re interested … go read it. It’s just an idea of how our T.V viewing habits have changed … or haven’t. Highlights include work schedules that affect our ability to watch liveand even new technology that allows us to watch in different formats such as DVD, DVR (days/weeks later), and even the internet which allows next day to next month viewing.

I got some good feedback about it, but I wanted to explore a few other things as a result ... such as what do those numbers mean?” 

As we enter the “digital’ age of T.V. viewing, it is likely that shows that once saw “record” numbers might see them go down only because of DVR viewing as well as being able to view the episode online hours or a day after the original broadcast, and even weeks later.

While some shows on networks like TNT require you to have a “subscription” based service, networks like CBS make the episodes available (at least to U.S viewers) after midnight after the live” airing.

I decided, after watching another episode of NCIS (S-11; “Alleged”), to go back and look at the ratings by the seasons. Especially now that season 11 is in the can. And, guess what?

THEY’RE ON PAR.

Really. There is no downward death spiral” apparentThere’re what I would refer to as “solid”.

While I’ll admit I got most of the information from Wikipedia, there are sources cited on the website to “verify” the ratings. All you have to do is to “click the links” by the information. Those links will redirect you to the articles or reference pages to verify the information. I know, that might be a lot of work for some people, but it is worth it. I’m not going to “spoon-feed” information, but, I will provide links. I did my research and it’s time others did theirs. 

NCIS concluded the eleventh (11th) season on May 13th, 2014. And, some have been talking about the LOW numbers for the episode “Honor Thy Father”. 

Let’s face it, the death of any character (especially one as BELOVED as Jackson Gibbs) is going to be a downer. Not to mention May is where we’re preparing for Prom, Graduation, June weddings, summer vacations … need I go on? It is a busy month.

Anyway …

Here’s where my zest for knowledge comes in … that wasn’ t the lowest finale (with or without “Ziva”).

So, which season finale was the lowest? Read on …


Season finales by year/season:

(03-04) Season 1 – “Reveille” – 10.86 (LOWEST)

(04-05) Season 2 – “Twilight” – 14.74 (Departure of Kate Todd; Sasha Alexander wanted to leave the series)

(05-06) Season 3 – “Hiatus, Pt. 2” – 16.49

(06-07) Season 4 – “Angel of Death” – 14.14  (lowest with Cote de Pablo)

(07-08) Season 5 – “Judgment Day, Pts 1 & 2” – 16.52 (Short season due to writer’s strike; departure of Jenny Shepard)

(08-09) Season 6 – “Aliyah” – 16.51

(09-10) Season 7 – “Rule Fifty-One” – 16.30

(10-11) Season 8 – “Pyramid” – 18.62

(11-12) Season 9 – “Till Death Do Us Part” – 19.05 (HIGHEST)

(12-13) Season 10 – “Damned If You Do” – 18.79 (Technically the departure of Ziva David as an NCIS agent)

(13-14) Season 11 – “Honor They Father” – 16.95 (Goodbye to Jackson Gibbs as the actor Ralph Waite had passed February 2014)


As you can see, the LOWEST ever NCIS finale rating was Season 1 – “Reveille” with 10.86 million.

I honestly LOVED the episode. It gave us (at least me) a chance to see what the future held for NCIS. We learned that Ari was going to be someone to watch, fear, and would continue to haunt us. Without that episode … there would be no “Twilight”, no “Kill Ari”, and no Ziva. Then again, we obviously didn’t know it at the time. 

But, as with any show … NCIS was just finding its “sea legs”, pun intended. It was only the second season, and was still a “J.A.G” spin-off. “J.A.G” ended on my birthday (4-29-2005) after a 10-year run. 

NCIS’ second season finale “Twilight” was up nearly FOUR (4) million viewers, and saw the “violent” end of Kate Todd, as Sasha Alexander left the series. That aired nearly a month after “J.A.G” ended. 

With “Cote’s Army” decrying that the show has decreased in viewership – they might be interested to note that Season 4 – “Angel of Death” was the LOWEST NCIS season finale with Cote de Pablo as part of the team. There were no character deaths; nor was there a good “cliff hanger” to end the season.

Cote de Pablo was in the season finales for seasons three to ten, and adding that up, the average rating is … 17.05 (add seasons three to ten ratings and divide by 10 if you don’t believe me). So, 16.95 is only -0.10 OFF. 

How did the “meet & greet” episodes fare? Let’s take a look …


Meet the “ladies” (or rather “agents” of NCIS) …

Since Sasha Alexander (Kate Todd) was introduced in the season one (1) pilot “Yankee White”, and already a “series regular”, we can’t compare her episodes to Ziva David (Cote de Pablo) or Eleanor “Ellie” Bishop (Emily Wickersham).

So … let’s meet “Ziva”.

We get our first introduction with the season three (3) premiere episode “Kill Ari, Part 1”, to a viewership of 15.48 million.

By the fourth (4th) episode “Silver War”, she was made a series regular. That episode got 16.78 million. Ziva replaced Kate (who was killed) only four (4) episodes later.

Season eleven (11) – Ziva is gone, and we get Ellie Bishop.

Bishop’s “meet me” episode, “Gut Check” (episode #9) gets 19.66 million. She’s made a regular in “Kill Chain” (episode #12; January 7, 2014) which gets 20.84 million viewers, ironically the highest rated episode for the season. Ellie “replaces” Ziva after twelve (12) episodes.

Cote’s Army has said that Bishop replaced Ziva too soon.

I’m sorry, but compared to how fast Ziva replaced Kate Todd, I think it was about right. Yes, Kate was only there for two seasons (average episode “mourning” time – 2 episodes), so four episodes was appropriate. Twelve for an eight year character? That’s an average episode “mourning” time of 1.5 episodes. Then again, Kate was killed whereas Ziva was still alive.

Let’s put that into “months” since TV shows like NCIS run in “real time” or close to it. Ziva replaced Kate (at the desk) five (5) months after she was killed (average wait time – 2.5 months per year). Ellie replaced Ziva (who was not killed) after 7 months (average wait time – 1.1 months per year).

Is the replacement “too soon”? That depends on who you ask and what standards you go by. 

I’m sure that “real life” agencies take a shorter time to replace someone who died, quit, or retired. I think from May 2013 to January 2014 is an appropriate time length, if not too long to replace such an “essential” team member. 
I would like to consult with an NCIS agent to see how long they wait to replace agents who have died, quit, or retired.
I’m sure that we’d all be surprised. 

Anyway ...

Look at the Kate to Ziva replacement – one agent died, one quit. That is bound to have different reactions and situations regarding replacement. Just something to consider when reviewing the “replacement” times and seeing if it is indeed 
“too soon”.

I think the “army” forgets that this is about a “real life” agency and with their jobs so essential, going on and on about a teammate is likely NOT realistic. Let’s not forget that Ziva also did a few things that violated the policy.

But, that’s not what this blog is really about.

Getting back on “track” …

As you can see, the “meet” episodes varied by 4.18 million viewers. The episodes where they were made “regulars” differ by 4.06 million. That means over four (4) million tuned in to meet Ellie Bishop over Ziva David. Of course, NCIS was more popular AFTER airing on syndication and had a HUGE fan base.

Now, how did the season fare overall?


Total and Episodic Ratings/Viewership …

Since the “total” average has not yet been released for season eleven (11), let’s do it the OLD fashioned way … add and divide.

But, first … let’s take the entire series’ season ratings so far (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCIS_(TV_series)):

(03-04) Season 1 – 11.84
(04-05) Season 2 – 13.57
(05-06) Season 3 – 15.27 (Ziva’s “intro” season)
(06-07) Season 4 – 14.54 (First “full” season with “Ziva David”)
(07-08) Season 5 – 14.41 (writer’s strike shortened the season; series low with dePablo)
(08-09) Season 6 – 17.77
(09-10) Season 7 – 19.33
(10-11) Season 8 – 19.46
(11-12) Season 9 – 19.49
(12-13) Season 10 – 21.34
(13-14) Season 11  19.77 (higher estimate than original figure on 5/21 at 6:40pm Pacific Daylight Time) (drop of only 1.57 MILLION)

[ORIGINALLY  Now …

(13-14) Season 11 – 18.49 (approximate/NOT FINAL; Bishop’s “intro” season)]

That puts the season between six (6) and seven (7) in the overall ratings (ranking about 4th/5th most watched series), so it’s clearly not in any danger of becoming extinct or on its way out as some in the “army” have predicted. It’s technically “on par” with the other seasons. There were no “planned” character deaths, everyone has contracts to remain with the series until the end of the 13th season, and there were no cliff hangers. So, an “average” episode overall.

Now, what about the “lowest” episodic ratings?

Of course seasons one (1) and two (2) where the series was finding those “sea legs”; the ratings were as low as 10.13 with “Missing” (season 1), to as HIGH as 15.65 with season two’s “Heart Break”. 

I don’t remember those episodes. It’s been a while since I last saw them (I think it’s been a couple of years), I’ll have to go back and check them out. 

Again, with hitting this “link” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCIS_episodes#Introductory_episodes), you can see these figures for yourself.

Now, what about when “Ziva” was introduced? Did the ratings suddenly sky-rocket? Yes and no. They were “average”, nothing too stellar. They rose up after season three (3), but dropped for two straight seasons (four and five). More on that later.

As stated above, her “meet me” episode was “Kill Ari, Part 1”, and that got 15.48 million viewers. Season two (2) saw a higher episode viewership with “Heart Break” as previously mentioned.

Season three (3) saw a “high” of 18.08 million with “Honor Code” and a LOW of 14.95 with “Jeopardy”.  Clearly, it was still finding itself and was standing alone from “J.A.G”. This would be the first season with a character/team change and without running concurrent to “J.A.G”.

Season four (4) begins with the “Ziva”-centric “Shalom” and premiered with 13.80 million … that was not the lowest, the lowest was 13.79 with “Grace Period”, which saw the death of Paula Cassidy and DiNozzo telling Jeanne he loved her. That season’s highest rated episode was “Smoked” (with a NASCAR reference no less) which almost reached 18, but was listed as 17.96 million.

The writer’s strike cut season five (5) to just 19 episodes. The premiere “Bury Your Dead” (which saw us nearly lose DiNozzo, again) opened to 13.89, with the highest of 18.15 with “Requiem” (where we nearly lose Gibbs).

Season six (6) with “Last Man Standing” had a good premiere (which I’ll examine the premieres in a bit) … 18.03. The highest episode that season was a “Ducky”-centric episode “Broken Bird” with 18.62, with the lowest “Knockout” (15.84)

Season seven (7) begins with I think one of the best episodes for the season, “Truth or Consequences” which had 20.61 million.“Reunion” was the highest with 21.37. The lowest was 15.10 with “Obsession”.

Season eight (8) had a high with “Freedom” in at 22.85 and a low of 17.62 with “Swan Song” which we lost the beloved Mike Franks. I can understand that “low”.

Season nine (9) did not hit a “high” until the 14th episode of the season, with the 200th episode “Life Before His Eyes” with 20.98. The lowest was 17.58 with “Playing With Fire”.

Season ten (10) saw the highest ratings of 22.86 with “Shiva” the 12th episode of the season, and an emotional second part where we lost two characters – Eli David and Jackie Vance. A part-two episode “Shell Shocked” came in with 16.47 million viewers, the series low for that season.

Now … on to season eleven (11) post-Ziva. The lowest episode for the season was of course the finale “Honor Thy Father” (16.95), but the highest was “Kill Chain” with 20.84 million, and where Wickersham was added as a “cast member”.

Again, by clicking the link you can see the individual ratings for each episode and the “links” to the references.

The 14, 15, 16 million numbers continued into season five (5). The “steady” 16,17,18 million numbers didn’t start until season six, nearly three years after the character of Ziva was introduced.

On January 2, 2008 USA Network added NCIS to its line-up (http://www.multichannel.com/news/orphan-articles/ncis-boards-usa-schedule/131014). That was the middle of the fifth season and could account for the HUGE gain in viewers heading into the sixth season. 

The 20 million (and higher) numbers were not until season seven, nearly four seasons after introducing the character. So, to answer the previous question “What about when “Ziva” was introduced? Did the ratings suddenly sky-rocket?” The answer? No.

As previously mentioned, after introducing the character in season three (3), season four (4) saw a DROP by 0.73 in viewers and season five (5) dropped another 0.13 million. But, season six (6) saw an “uptick” by 3.36 million, again, USA network’s acquiring NCIS and airing it over the summer might have contributed to the gain.

Season nine (9) only saw a 0.03 rise in viewers though.

Between seasons three to ten, the series gained 7.77 million viewers, with the highest in season six of 3.36. That averages to less than one (1) million per year.

This could be attributed to the fact the USA Network had near-constant marathons of NCIS airing in 2008 which brought new viewers to the series to see the “new” episodes from seasons six to current.

[5/28 UPDATE: NCIS only saw a 1.57 MILLION drop in viewers from season 10 to 11]



Season Premieres …


So … how did the seasons begin?

Let’s take a look:


(03-04) Season 1 – “Yankee White” – 13.04 (Premiere/Pilot Episode)
(04-05) Season 2 – “See No Evil” – 14.33
(05-06) Season 3 – “Kill Ari, Pt. 1” – 15.48 (Ziva’s into)
(06-07) Season 4 – “Shalom” – 13.80  (Ziva centric, Gibbs temporarily gone)
(07-08) Season 5 – “Bury Your Dead” – 13.89
(08-09) Season 6 – “Last Man Standing” – 18.03 (team was “split”)
(09-10) Season 7 – “Truth or Consequences” – 20.61 (Ziva’s “rescue”)
(10-11) Season 8 – “Spider and the Fly” – 19.41 (summer cliff-hanger)
(11-12) Season 9 – “Nature of the Beast” – 19.96 (Tony centric)
(12-13) Season 10 – “Extreme Prejudice” – 20.48 (summer cliff-hanger)
(13-14) Season 11 – “Whiskey Tango Foxtrot” – 20.02 (Ziva’s departure)


The highest “premiere” was season 10 – “Extreme Prejudice”, and the LOWEST was “Yankee White”, which serves as the “pilot” episode from the series as “Ice Queen” and “Meltdown” were officially “J.A.G” episodes and thus “back-door pilots”.

However, Season 4 – “Shalom” is a close second, and the lowest with Cote de Pablo. Even her official “departure” episode “Past, Present, and Future” had nearly 20 million viewers (19.98).


What Does It All Mean?


Numbers aren’t everything, nor are they nothing. As one person pointed out   “people are dropping their pricey cable and satellite plans” (L.B). In addition, some smartphones and tablets offer “free” television viewing apps. According to “Lin” (name changed for privacy) “that hit has been across the board.” 

As one character in a movie said “they’re more of what you call guidelines”. These numbers let the networks and producers know how the show is performing against other shows. The series is performing well, obviously. It will have a 12th season for 2014-2015 in addition to a second spin-off “NCIS: New Orleans”, and with the cast in a contract for season 13 (2015-2016), it’s a safe bet that NCIS isn’t going anywhere … just yet. And, who knows … it could be around for 14, 15, 16 seasons. As with anything, it depends on certain scenarios and the people that make it possible.

Just like us, their lives are constantly changing and they have interests outside of work. They too have families and obligations.

Anyone with a computer, internet access, and working knowledge of search engines can find the numbers and verify the information. It takes time and effort. It takes an open mind as well. If you don’t want to see it, you won’t.

Seeing that NCIS is still successful, and still within the top-5/top-10 bracket, I don’t see the network cancelling it right away nor do they have an incentive to change what is working, and working well at that.

But, there is a “faction” that would argue the series has gone down the tubes.

As I said in my other blog … they’re making too much out of too little. As a series ages, it will lose viewers, that’s not uncommon. Some will be aged out of the count, and others are not aged in. And, some viewers even die. That’s the reality of it. Also, as the cable/satellite companies raise rates and often drop channels due to contract disputes, the ratings will go down as well. 

In August 2013 , Time-Warner dropped CBS in certain markets affecting nearly 3,000,000 subscribers (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/08/02/cbs-time-warner-cable-negotiation/2613667/). I’m sure that would affect ratings as well. 

However, with the numbers they have, they have no incentive to give into a small group of viewers with something that isn’t realistic or in the network’s interest. In addition, that is considering the person wants to come back.

Having an “open mind”, I’ve looked at the opBBC website, which has had less than 60,000 views since it started on or around July 2013 (saying those are “unique” viewers and not everyone who clicks on the page). Their “fish” campaign netted less than 51,000 to the network, which was rumored to have been refused (I can only wonder why).

The petition on change.org has less than 20,000 signatures. If you Google “Bring Back Cote” you will find the websites to both opBBC (Operation Bring Back Cote) and the change.org petition to verify the stats. I am not going to give them any more mention than they need. 

That’s not what this is about. It’s about the numbers, it’s about the facts.

Talking about numbers, CBS is going to listen to the majority, that is what is paying their bills and tuning in. Saying my 18.49 million viewer season estimate is correct for season 11 …

I’m sure CBS would rather listen to 18.49 MILLION versus 20,000 to 60,000 (less than 1% of the alleged NCIS fans).

As I commented on a NASCAR article about the sport not listening to “fans”, here’s the cold and hard fact:

THEY DO LISTEN TO FANS. They listen to everyone.

They listen to fans that are polite, articulate, don’t spam, don’t gimmick. But … they listen to the “majority” of fans. That often means they won’t respond the way some expect though.

If 52% like an idea over 48%, there is a good chance the 52% will get their way and the 48%? Well, “no one listens to me” or so they think.

Correction: they do, but you’re in the minority. While that might seem like a cold/callous attitude, it’s a matter of “money” for not only say the network, but a company, or even NASCAR.

It’s like this …

Would you prefer $18.49 MILLION? or $60,000? If I had my choice?

I think I’d take $18.49 MILLION. That’s just me. The $60,000 would only pay off my car, my mom’s taxes, and not even cover extensive/corrective dental work for my mother or myself.

Does that sort of make sense?

The network (like any business) will listen, but at the end of the day it is about their “great” reach. 18.49 million is worth more than 60,000 – gimmicks or not; loud or quiet.



Conclusion …


Again, as we move into the digital age (if we’re not considered as there already) …

T.V viewing habits will change. As one of my Twitter followers said “I think the TV world needs to change how it counts viewers, but I'm not sure how they can improve their intel.

She’s right. It needs to change. But, the question is how can they better utilize and gather the intel?

Counting the clicks or views on a video is a start, but what about those who “live-view”, “DVR”, and watch online? How can we separate those numbers? Do we go by household and I.P address? While a start, that might make some people paranoid into thinking it’s done for nefarious reasons.

The honor system does not work, not with people who want to manipulate intel for their own causes.

And, as I said in my blog … some of the shows are run during “work” nights so live-viewing is not as it once was. It’s not like the 1950’s where mom stayed home, cooked, and by 8pm everyone was in front of the tube.

People sometimes work odd schedules and have a life outside of the television screen and DVR box. That is another reason why the numbers do not necessarily reflect actual attitudes of the viewing public. In addition to the fact that some people are indeed finding cheaper options to view television and stepping away from cable and/or satellite. 

At the end of the day, let’s face it, television is a mindless distraction. It’ll always be there in one form or another. Everything does come to an end. But, for now, the “end” of NCIS is not close. 

Life is more precious. Why not tune out, log off, and go outside? Find a hobby, take up a cause, and live life? Donate your time?

Now …

How long before NCIS’ 12th season starts?

And, for those wondering “why are you going on about this”; “why are you writing about this”; “why are you interested” ... it’s simple  to show my support for a great cast, great grew, great series that has defied the odds. 

A series that didnt seem to have much, and grew to have a lot. 

And, to say  “THANK YOU”. I am not paid or reimbursed for this. This is a labor of love. So, tune in on Tuesdays, CBS, 8PM to watch NCIS.

To learn more about the actual Naval Criminal Investigative Service: (http://www.ncis.navy.mil/AboutNCIS/Pages/default.aspx)



[Actual "seal" of the Naval Criminal Investigative Service; NCIS]


As a “footnote”  if you have facts or figures to counter these, please “respectfully” pass them along and cite your sources.

Thank you.


**UPDATE: (as of 5/22/2014)  NCIS ended season #11 with 19.77 MILLION viewers and ranked #3. (http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/tv-season-series-rankings-2013-full-list-2/)


References:


Bellisario, D. P., Glasberg, G., & Harmon, M. (2003). NCIS [Television series]. Los Angeles, New York: CBS. 


Full 2013-2014 TV Season Series Rankings. (2014, May 22). Deadlinecom. Retrieved May 28, 2014, from http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/tv-season-series-rankings-2013-full-list-2/

images. (n.d.). - National Intellectual Property Rights Coordination Center. Retrieved May 21, 2014, from http://www.iprcenter.gov/images


List of NCIS episodes. (n.d.). Wikipedia. Retrieved May 20, 2014, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCIS_episodes#Introductory_episodes


NCIS Home Page. (n.d.). NCIS Home Page. Retrieved May 21, 2014, from http://www.ncis.navy.mil/Pages/publicdefault.aspx



NCIS (TV series). (2014, May 20). Wikipedia. Retrieved May 20, 2014, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCIS_(TV_series)


Reynolds, M. (2007, December 28). 'NCIS' Boards USA Schedule. Cable Television News, Broadcast, Syndication, Programming & Local TV. Retrieved May 20, 2014, from http://www.multichannel.com/news/orphan-articles/ncis-boards-usa-schedule/131014


Yu, R. (2013, August 3). Time Warner Cable drops CBS in New York, L.A., Dallas. USA Today. Retrieved May 21, 2014, from http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/08/02/cbs-time-warner-cable-negotiation/2613667/

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